Headline for .     Since the beginning of 2018, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, currencies around the world are generally down against the United States dollar.     
World Currency Observer
World Currency Observer

Exchange Rates: one year high and low

December 2, 2024. Next update: December 18, 2024. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition).

Currencies around the world have, generally, steadily weakened against the US$ since the middle of September 2024, but then strengthened in the last week of November (while many commenters have linked the U.S. dollar post-November 22 weakness to the nominee for new U.S. treasury secretary, which can definitely be seen in the data for currencies like the Swiss franc, the movement of the US. dollar was not uniform for all currencies – e.g., was more pronounced for the Japan yen, and almost non-existent for the India rupee). In line with this, a long list of currencies moved down against the US$ in the first three weeks of November and then reversed course and moved up in the last week, with net weakness over the month. With this in mind, looking at currencies around the world in November 2024: the Canada dollar showed a net weakening of 1% against the US$ in November (down 3% since this time last year) and the Mexico peso was down by 2% in November, and was down by 17% against the US$ since this time last year. The Costa Rico colón was up by 1.5% in its US$ value in November 2024, and 4% stronger than at this time last year. South America currencies were generally down against the US$ in November, with the exceptions of Paraguay and Peru. The Brazil peso fell by 5.25% in November 2024, and is down by 23% against the US$ since this time a year ago. The Uruguay peso was down by 3.5% in November 2024 against the US$, and down by 10.25% since this time last year. The Chile peso was down by 5% against the US$ in November, and down by 11.5% since this time last year. After successive months of upward movement, the Suriname dollar fell for the second month in a row in November (down by 4.5% against the US$), but is still up by 6.5% against the US$ since this time last year. The Euro, after strengthening in the last week of November 2024, showed a net downward movement of 2.5%% against the US$ on the month, and is down by 3.5% since this time last year. There were similar percentage amounts of movement in November 2024 by most European currencies against the US$, with one exception being the Hungary forint, which fell by 7% against the US$ in November 2024, and which is down by 13.5% since this time last year. Another exception is the Türkiye lira, which was down by 1% against the US$ in November, and up by 1.5% against the Euro. The Russia rouble was down by 17% in November against the US$, and is down by 26% since this time last year. The 3% appreciation of the Israel shekel in November was, In light of recent currency movements, a substantial move - the shekel is up by 1% from its US$ value at this time last year. The Ghana cedi was up by 2.5% against the US$ in November 2024, and down by 30% since this time last year. The South Africa rand was down by 2% in November 2024 against the US$ (following roughly the same down-and-up movement noted above for other currencies in November 2024), but which, nonetheless, left the rand 3.25% stronger against the US$ since this time last year. The Tanzania shilling was up by 2.75% against the US$ in November 2024, and was down by 5.5% since this time last year. The Kenya shilling, the Democratic Republic of Congo franc, and the Uganda shilling were among the African currencies with almost no net movement against the US$ in November. The November 2024 down-and-the-up movement of the Japan yen ended with the yen up 1% against the US$ in November. There was a 1.75% net weakening of the China yuan against the US$ in November 2024, a 0.5% weakening of the South Korea won, and a net downward movement of 1.75% by the Australia dollar against the US$. The Thailand baht was down by 2% in Nomember agaist the US$, and up by 1.75% since this time last year. The Malaysia ringitt was down by 2.5% In November against the US$, and is up by 5% against the US$ since this time last year. The India rupee was down slightly against the US$ in November 2024. Metals commodity US$ prices fell in November 2024, but are still up substantially from their value at this time last year. In the last 6-8 months, oil prices have been dropping steadily, while in the same period, gold prices have continued the steady climb that began over two years ago.

Swiss franc November 2024 after US Pres elections Nov 5.png

At the beginning of November, Argentina lowered, from 40% to 35%, the benchmark leliq (letra de liquidez) interest rate, which is the yield it offers on peso-denominated very short-term notes sold to (bought by) the banking system, i.e. it is a lower bound on Argentina interest rates of comparable maturities. The Argentina peso is down 180% against the US$ since this time last year, but it should also be noted that it has lately fallen by a much smaller amounts, such as around 1.75% against the US$ over the month of November 2024 (to around 1100 pesos/1$US), against a backdrop of high, though falling inflation. In this regard, the latest annual rate of inflation in Argentina is at around 110%, but, if the latest October 2024 rate of 2.7% were repeated over future months, the projected (esperada) annual inflation rate would be around 38% (and, it should be noted that, at present, it looks like future monthly inflation rates for Argentina will be falling below the current 2.7%).

Suggestions by the incoming United States president (January 20, 2025) of the greater use of tariffs (higher rates and, also very important, their applicability to a much broader range of products) implies more attention to the point in the import chain of transactions where assessment is made of the domestic currency value of imported goods, known generally as customs valuation – most countries follow, more or less, the procedures summarized by the World Trade Organization. Aside from the straightforward application of multiplying the exchange rate (not always the free market rate and, even where it is, not always the latest exchange rate) to convert foreign currency amounts into domestic currencies, there are many additional dimensions which could be made to vary considerably, particularly where sharply higher tariff rates and duties are involved. Among these: which payments by the goods and services receiver are to be included in the customs valuation; the many instances where goods and services cross borders with payment deferred for weeks or months, such as consignments or time payments; whether the goods and service provider and recipient are separate entities or are connected by ownership links; the considerable variation in domestic sales and value-added taxes applied to imports, and how they are calculated; the connection to the valuation of imports of items such as transportation, insurance premiums, financing charges. It seems clear to WCO that a useful hypothesis is that, in a world with much higher tariff rates, and which, it is suggested, may often be connected to important (but certainly non-trade) factors such as immigration restrictions and illegal drugs, there will be more variations in these other factors, many of which are more-or-less hidden, as they are often applied at local levels.

(World Currency Observer will next be updated on December 18, 2024. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition). For permission-to-quote enquiries, e-mail World Currency Observer at WCO@briargreen.com.)