Headline for .     Since the beginning of 2018, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, currencies around the world are generally down against the United States dollar.     
World Currency Observer
World Currency Observer

Exchange Rates: one year high and low

April 3, 2025 (see April 16 update below). Next update: May 2, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition).

The United States president announced, on April 2, a minimum 10% tariff on imports of goods into the United States from all countries in the world, with much higher tariff rates for 56 countries of the world listed in an Annex – one region whose countries are entirely excluded from the higher Annex tariffs is South America, while the European Union as a whole is subject to a 20% tariff. Blended tariff regimes were already in place for imports into the United States from China, Canada and Mexico. Tariff rates of 25% on automobile, steel and aluminum products from all countries into the United States are going into effect. Among the reactions so far: in the days before the announcement of the new regime, China, Japan and South Korea had announced that they would pursue a free trade arrangement. WCO remarks that the general impact of the new regime is generally expected to include a stronger US dollar against every currency in the world.

Looking at currency movements in the month of March leading up to the April 2 announcement: the Canada dollar and the Mexico peso both had been weakening in the last part of February and the beginning of March 2025, until the announcement on March 4 by the United States of the 25% tariff regime on both countries; both currencies then grew stronger over the remainder of March, each showing a net strengthening over the month of nearly 0.5% against the United States dollar. The Costa Rica colón was up by 1.5% against the US dollar in March, and is up by 1% since this time last year. The Chile peso rose again in March, with the 2% rise over the month leaving it up by more than 5% since this time last year. The Brazil peso was up by 2.5% against the US$ in March, and is down by 14.5% since this time last year. Europe currencies followed the pattern of other currencies, weakening until the United States announcement of 25% tariffs until March 4, except that the appreciation of the Europe currencies was extremely strong over the rest of the month - in particular, the Euro showed a net gain of nearly 4% against the US$ in March 2025. Currencies of the former USSR countries were up against the US$ in March 2025, with the Russia rouble up by nearly 4%. The Israel shekel fell by 3% in March against the US$, and is down by 0.5% since this time last year. Almost all Africa currencies were up against the US$ in March 2025, with one exception being the Zambia kwacha, which fell by 1% on the month, and is now down by nearly 14.5% against the US$ since this time last year. Asia currencies, from the Pacific Rim to South Asia, were, almost all, up against the US$ in March 2025 - among these, the China yuan was up by nearly 0.5%. Oil prices in US dollars moved down by 4% in February 2025, and are down by 10% since this time last year. Gold and silver prices in US dollars were up by around 10% in March 2025, and up by around 40% since this time last year -the price of gold has reached another record high. Oil prices are down around 15% since this time last year. Cocoa prices are down 13% over the month of March, and down 18% since this time last year - in general agricultural prices generally fell in March 2025, while metals prices generally rose.

The Indonesia rupiah was down 0.75% during March 2025 against the US$ and down 4.5% since this time last year. The V-shaped trajectory of the value of the Indonesia rupiah over the last eight months was broadly the same as that of other Southeast Asia countries, such as Laos, Malaysia and Thailand. From mid-August 2024 to the beginning of October 2024, the rupiah moved up by 4.5% against the US$. In the six months since then, the rupiah fell 9.5% against the US$, and is now at about 16600 per 1 US$ - this may be a “record low” for the rupiah, but is not that far from recent benchmarks, such as its pre-Covid value, in December 2019, of around 14000 per 1$US, and is comparable to depreciations against the US dollar by other countries. Indonesia is the world’s leading source of nickel (mining and smelting), and the price of nickel has fallen more-or less steadily over the last year, from a high of roughly US$21000 per tonne, to its current value of around $16000.

April 16, 2025 update

US dollar value gold April 2025 from 2019 pre Covid.png

WCO update on the series of special reciprocal tariff rates (higher than the world-wide 10% April 5 rates) announced by the United States president for April 9, 2025: there was a lot of controversy on how the new, higher, reciprocal rates were constructed/estimated (which WCO found to be very interesting, and we will provide fuller discussion of the formula later), but it has turned out to be irrelevant for the moment, as the United States then announced a three month deferral (and likely revisions) of the tariff rates, during which time, the US has indicated, that they expect to be approached by the sixty-or-so target countries for negotiations (some countries seem more inclined to retaliation). But it was a different story for China, with the result, so far, being a 145% tariff on goods imported into the US from China (for every $100 paid to China for the goods, $145 to be paid to the United States treasury, a huge upward revision from the previous tariff rate, with interesting exchange rate implications,) and a China tariff of 125% on goods imported from the U.S (and China has just announced rare earth metal export restrictions on the U.S.) United States spokespersons continue to state that unfavorable tariff and non-tariff barriers have existed with its trading partners for at least fifty years, accounting for the heavy-handed moves to get what they see as a long-deferred correction, although it is not clear to specialists why this has to be accomplished principally with tariffs, which seem to be almost unanimously viewed by specialists as not the best way to achieve the declared goals. Another set of causes, more related to the WCO focus on exchange rates, relates to the assertion that the United States is currently at a US$debt-to-US$GDP ratio which is comparable (although still below) levels reached during World War II. US$ federal debt is comprised of a portfolio of financial instruments which have proven to be (and always have been) acceptable everywhere in the world (the most credit worthy and denominated in US dollars), and therefore has helped to finance the series of trade (more accurately, current account) deficits which have led the USA to this point, although certainly not the only factor. Several commentators, and many politicians, have noted that understanding the United States government revenue implications of the high tariff rates is just as important as the prices-of-imports-and-export effects, with the tariff revenues setting the stage for more tax cuts for Americans. And, of course, the US has a long list of demands on other countries which have little impact on trade issues, which it hopes to achieve by using tariffs as an “incentive”, particularly for smaller countries (some of which are not countries at all, for which reason they do not have exchange rates of their own.)

(World Currency Observer will next be updated on May 2, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition). For permission-to-quote enquiries, e-mail World Currency Observer at WCO@briargreen.com.)