Headline for .     Since the beginning of 2018, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, currencies around the world are generally down against the United States dollar.     
World Currency Observer
World Currency Observer

Exchange Rates: one year high and low

March 3, 2025. Next update: March 19, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition).

After rising in the first week of February 2025, the US$ showed weakness over the last three weeks of the month, generally attributed to a view of emerging softness in the (still very strong) US economy - combined with recent inflation news on the upward side, it appears there will be some room for further (small) reductions in United States interest rates for the rest of the year. In line with this, looking at movements in exchange rates around the world, currencies in many countries weakened against the US$ in the first week of February and then strengthened over the remainder of the month, resulting in small net changes in US$ currency values (positive or negative) over the entire month. Examples of this included the North American currencies: the Canada dollar and Mexico peso both showed a slight upward movement against the US dollar over the entire month of February, as both countries awaited (and prepared for retaliation against) the anticipated widening, in the next two days, of the world trade war which was launched by the United States against China in the first week of March (there will be further attention to the exchange rate implications of the trade war in future WCO brochure updates). There was upward movement in most South America currencies in February, particularly Chile (3.5%) and the Uruguay peso, which registered a rise for the third month in a row-up 2.25% on the month, but down 8.25% since this time last year. There was a no net movement of the Euro against the US$ in February 2025. The Sweden krone was up by 3% and the United Kingdom pound was up by 1% against the US$ in February. The Hungary forint and the Poland zloty both moved up by around 1.25% against the US$ in February 2025, and the Turkey lira was up by around 1.75%. The Russia rouble was up 11.25% in February against the US$, and has risen by more than 20% in the last three months. All other former-USSR countries' currencies also moved up in February, particularly the Belarus rouble, up by 5.75% The Ukraine hryvnia was up by 0.5% in February, and is down by 8.5% since this time last year. The Ghana cedi is down by 23% against the US$ since this time last year (down 4.75% on the month). The Cape Verde escudo was up by 2% in February against the Us$, and down 4% since this time last year. The Tanzania shilling fell by 3.25% against the US$ in February, and is down by 2% since this time last year. After several ups-and-downs, the South Africa rand showed almost no net change in February against the US$. The Japan yen was up by a net 2.75% against the US$ over the month of February - down until February 12 and then up. The Vietnam dong was down nearly 2% against the US$ in February 2025, and down by 3.75% since this time last year. Oil prices in US dollars moved down by 4% in February 2025, and are down by 10% since this time last year. International rice prices in US$ terms fell by 8% in February 2025 and are down by 30% since this time last year. WCO remarks that one country where rice prices have been rising is Japan, which has historically had strong restrictions and tariffs on imported rice, placing upward pressure on the prices of its high quality domestic rice product.

WCO has seen what we view as an authoritative text of the draft Ukraine-United States Bilateral Agreement, based on a 50-50 sharing of natural resources revenues in Ukraine (covering the whole country), the one which was “discussed” on February 28 2025 by the Ukraine president, and the United States president and vice president, and which was not signed at that time by either party. (From an exchange rate point of view, WCO’s focus, aside from the war itself, include the degree to which natural resource revenues - based on the mineral and other such assets are covered by the agreement and the share of each party – are divided between Ukraine and the US, and on when the agreement commences and when it terminates.) The Bilateral Agreement, along with a future Fund Agreement (WCO has seen no draft text of this Fund Agreement, although there are several references in the Bilateral Agreement to the items to be covered by the Fund Agreement) are intended to establish a Reconstruction Investment Fund, to be jointly managed by Ukraine and the United States. The natural resource assets covered by the proposed Agreement, which are the sources of revenue for the Fund, are to be Ukraine government-owned “deposits of minerals, hydrocarbons, oil, natural gas and other extractive materials and other infrastructure corresponding to natural resource assets (such as as liquefied natural gas terminals and port infrastructure) ”, and Ukraine is to contribute 50% of revenues of all of these to the proposed Fund. All investments by the Fund are to be “in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine” as will be defined in the future Fund Agreement. With regard to references about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, the Bilateral Agreement notes it is drawn up with ”the aim of achieving lasting peace in Ukraine,” that “ the United States of America supports Ukraine’s efforts to obtain security guarantees needed to establish lasting peace ”, and that this agreement is of a commercial nature, but it is also part of the structure of other agreements and is one of the steps toward a lasting peace.

The United States president indicated that 25% tariffs on all goods imported from both Canada and Mexico will start on Tuesday March 4, 2025. More updates in the next couple of days – WCO is monitoring official United States confirmation of the tariffs and the range of goods to which they will apply.

(World Currency Observer will next be updated on March 19, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition). For permission-to-quote enquiries, e-mail World Currency Observer at WCO@briargreen.com.)