Headline for .     Since the beginning of 2018, despite the Covid-19 pandemic, currencies around the world are generally down against the United States dollar.     
World Currency Observer
World Currency Observer

Exchange Rates: one year high and low

June 2, 2025. Next update: June 18, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition).

With the post end-of-January-2025 United States structure of new tariffs on every country around the world – reciprocal (10% and up) and fentanyl (25% and up) – on the verge of possibly being confirmed in the next two weeks as having been illegal (although, as widely noted, the tariffs may be enforced using other United States legal authority), WCO will focus its exchange rate update this month on exchange rate movements around the world, and on major commodities, on the four-month period since the American tariff war was launched with the inauguration of the new US president at the end of January 2025, who immediately confirmed that the tariffs which he had mentioned for months were definitely coming. It should also be added that during the four months, a period of upward movement in most (but not all) exchange rates around the world against the US dollar, was accompanied by continued declines in many worldwide interest rates.

(Before proceeding to the WCO analysis of country-by-country four month exchange rate trajectories since the launch of the trade war at the end of January 2025, it should be noted that all of these net four-month movements are after taking into account the April 2 to April 9 weakness, and then quick recovery, of virtually every exchange rate in the world, which surrounded the April 2-9 2025 announcements, and then modifications/postponements, of worldwide tariffs by the United States.) Over the four months since the launch of the trade war, the Canada dollar has risen by 4.75% against the US dollar and the Mexico peso is up by 6.5% (the peso is down by 14% since this time last year). The Dominican Republic peso was up by 4% against the US$ since the end-of-January inauguration (no net change since a year ago), and the Jamaica dollar was down by 1.5% since then. The Argentina peso (official) was down by nearly 12% against the US$ in the past four months - Argentina is a 10% reciprocal tariff country, but has also been the object of indications by the United States secretary of agriculture regarding forthcoming reductions in United States agriculture imports from Argentina. South America countries with strong upward movements in their currencies over the last four months included the Brazil real (5.5%), the Chile peso (up by 7.5% against the US$ over the last four months), the Colombia peso (5.5% appreciation), the Peru sol (3.6%), and the Uruguay peso(the Uruguay peso was 5.5% stronger against the US$ over the last four month, but down 14.5% since this month last year in 2024). Virtually every currency throughout Europe (such as the Euro) was up by around 9.25 % against the US$ over the four months since the inauguration, with some up a little more, such as the Swiss franc, with a 10% appreciation against the US$, and the Hungary forint, which was up by 12% over the four months, and up by 1% against the US$ since this time last year. Currencies among countries of the former USSR showed mixed movement, but were generally stronger against the US$. Among these a standout was the Russia rouble, up by more than 25% against the US$ over the last four months. The Moldova leu was up by 5% over the last four months. In the Middle East, the Israel shekel was up by 4% against the US$ in the four months since the launch of the worldwide trade war, and up by 5.5% since this time last year (and up by 3.5% against the US$ during the month of May 2025). During the four month period since the inauguration, most Africa currencies were stronger against the US$ - among the exceptions was the Tanzania shilling (up a little against the US$ in May 2025, but down by 8.5% over the four months and by 3% since this time last year), and the Nigeria naira, which was up by 1% against the US$ over the month of May 2025, but was down 10.% since this time last year and by 2.5% over the four month period. Most currencies in the Pacific Rim and Southern Asia (including Southeast Asia) were up against the US$ over the four months since the start of the trade war, notably the Japan yen (up by around 8% against the US dollar( and the Taiwan dollar (up by around 9% against the US dollar) and the South Korea won, which, after moving up by 3% in the month of May 2025, is up by around 5.25% over the previous four months. The China yuan, after moving up against the US$ by just over 0.5% in May 2025, is up by 1.75% against the US dollar over the preceding four months. Some currencies in the Southern Asia region weakened against the US dollar over the four months since the start of the trade war, including the Vietnam dong (down 2.5% over the four months and by a little less since this time last year), the Pakistan rupee (down 1.2% over the previous four months and also down by this amount since this time last year) and the Sri Lanka rupee (down 1.5% against the US$ over the four months since the start of the trade war). The India rupee was up by 1.25% against the US$ over the previous four months. The Mongolia tugrik was down 4.5% against the US$ over the four months, and down by 6% since this time last year. Commodities of all types, such as metals (among which are the high-profile rare earth metals), agricultural and energy products, have, of course, been strongly affected the trade war, and these influences show up in commodity prices. Over the four-month period since the start of the trade war, there have been many falls in the US$ prices of commodities, such as a nearly 25% fall in world petroleum prices. At the same time, gold prices are up by 20% over the same four-month period (up 40% since this time last year), with lesser increases in other metals, such as copper, which is up by 3.5% over the four-month period and down by 5.75% since this time last year. There were falls in the prices of many natural products (raw materials and food) over the four-month period, among the exceptions are coffee prices, up nearly 50% since this time last year.

The sequence of revisions during May 2025 to United States tariffs (see WCO last month for a summary) was, at first, dominated by the mutual reduction of China-United States tariffs announced on May 8, and also by reports that talks connected with trade deals were ongoing between United States and a number of countries, with the United Kingdom and the US said to have reached a deal focused around reduction of the 10% tariff rate on the UK to zero. On May 29 (Thursday), however, the US international trade court ordered the removal, within 10 days (by June 7) of all the country-targeted tariffs put in place by the US. The next day (May 30), an appeal was made by the president for a stay of the tariffs removal, which was granted, with plaintiffs required to respond by June 5 (Thursday), and with the president permitted to comment on the stay until June 9 (Monday). The applicability of the trade court decision was broadened by the wide variety of plaintiffs, which included many states with heavy interest in international trade. If the judgement of the trade court stands after appeals (regarding the question of the legality of the 10%/Annex and fentanyl tariffs over the preceding four months), there is the possibility that Trump administration will find other ways to continue the reciprocal and fentanyl tariffs. Also, in the last few days, it was announced that United States tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (which are not subject to this court judgement) will soon be raised from 25% to 50%, possibly connected to an arrangement reached with a Japan steel firm (Nippon Steel) for steel production in the United States.

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(World Currency Observer will next be updated on June 18, 2025. Visit Search to look at past issues of World Currency Observer (brochure edition). For permission-to-quote enquiries, e-mail World Currency Observer at WCO@briargreen.com.)